Whoever he is, will come from the field of six vying for the top political job. The six candidates represent a good cross-section of this multi-cultural nation, from east to west and north to south.
When nominations closed on Sunday, four emerged from the National Coalition for Reform and Advancement (NCRA) in Hon. Gordon Darcy Lilo (former Minister of Finance), Hon. Dr. John Fugui (Minister for the Environment), Hon Samuel Manetoali (Minister for Culture and Tourism) and Hon Manasseh Sogavare.
The Opposition, on the other hand, has two. Its lead candidate is Hon Milner Tozaka (a former diplomat and former public service Minister), the other is Hon Douglas Ete, a former unionist and former public service minister).
Whoever is voted in tomorrow will be the nation’s 10th Prime Minister since we gained nationhood more than three decades ago.
The current political upheaval follows the unseating of Hon Danny Philip last Friday, when he took the Opposition machinery by surprise in tendering his resignation.
What transpired since has shown the three Opposition factions were not ready even for contesting the leadership.
In fact, when Hon Philip threw in the towel, the Opposition did not even have a candidate as an alternate Prime Minister.
It took the Opposition two days to come up with a candidate for the top job. In doing so, North Vella Lavella MP, Hon Milner Tozaka was picked ahead of the incumbent Opposition leader, who must be wondering why he was leading the Opposition in the first place at all, as he was the natural choice.
But Dr. Derek Sikua was gracious in accepting the decision by the Opposition proper in nominating Hon Tozaka ahead of him.
The ink used in signing the deal hardly dried when East Honiara MP, Douglas Ete, put up his hand for the top job. If there were any evidence of unity within the factious Opposition, Hon Ete’s emergence as a candidate has totally undermined that unity.
At last count, the NCRA-led group is said to be holding at 35. That leaves the other factions at 14
Given the split within the group, the outcome of today’s (Wednesday) poll could very well be a slaughter. The danger for NCRA of course is not over just yet.
What is at stake
Given that votes of no confidence are becoming a commodity, which elected governments in Solomon Islands and perhaps in other Melanesian countries, use to usurp power, just what is at stake here?
And, as far as the NCRA Government side is concerned, a lot is at stake.
First, it is the survival of NCRA itself, which is at stake. NCRA is a team consisting of seven political parties, which on 25th August last year came together and pledged to work under the leadership of Hon Philip’s.
In October last year, NCRA adopted a development policy focused on the rural area. It identified Economic Growth Centres (EGCs) as the flagship NCRA policy to take service delivery through rural development to the people.
It follows that any outward movement by any NCRA member, which is unlikely, could create a fissure within the group.
Government candidates are aware of this and are expected to remain united and loyal as a team as they have the upper in terms of numbers.
The second thing at stake is the new funding which Prime Minister Danny Philip secured from neighboring Papua New Guinea during his October visit to Port Moresby.
Vibes coming
through from Waigani (PNG Government Offices) since Hon Philip was forced to
resign was that if the NCRA government is removed, Port Moresby will pull the
plug on the funding. That will be SBD300 million down the drain over the next
five years.
This veiled threat is not inconsistent with the spirit and letter of the Joint Communiqué, which Hon Philip and his then counterpart, PNG Prime Minister Peter O’Neill, signed on Thursday 05th October in Port Moresby.
For example, Clause 19of the Communiqué says: “Leaders noted the commitment by PNG to provide K100 million (about SBD300 million) over five years beginning 2012 to cover new bilateral support in establishing Economic Growth Centres (throughout Solomon Islands). Tertiary Education Grant Assistance program will continue under existing bilateral arrangements.”
Clause 22 says: “Leaders noted that the new commitment (by PNG) reflects, among other things, the change of focus by Solomon Islands Government.”
As someone who helped put these clauses in place, it is important to note that the fact that the new funding program “reflects, among other things, the change of focus” by NCRA.
In other words, the funding was approved on account of projects identified as priorities by the NCRA Government.
Economic Growth Centres (EGCs) and Rural Economic Communities (RECs) are the focus and indeed priorities for the NCRA government.
To date, visits have been undertaken by staff of the National Bureau for Social and Economic Reform (NBSER) to at least three on Malaita – Small Malaita, Faumamanu in East Malaita and Suava Bay in north Malaita.
Discussions are ongoing with other MPs to identify these economic activity spinners to ensure the NCRA Government is acting on the wishes of resources owners in consultation with their MPs.
Also at stake is the long-running RIPEL issue which many governments had shied away from until NCRA came in and decided to tackle it head on.
So any change of
government would mean that it had to negotiate its own funding arrangements
based on focus and priorities.
Who suffers?
The first to suffer are the Economic Growth Centres (EGCs), which have to be scrapped due to lack of funding. The next lot to bear the full brunt will be our students studying in PNG tertiary institutions.
Clause 21 says: “Leaders noted the Solomon Islands recent proposal for PNG’s consideration for continuation of the Tertiary Educational Grants Assistance once the current program runs out.”
The so-called current program runs out this year. As a matter of fact, this academic year the NCRA Government had to find an extra SBD26 million to pay tuition and other costs in order to keep our students in PNG tertiary institutions this year.
NCRA has to find the money because of an expensive oversight by former Education Minister, now Opposition strongman and MP for Aoke/Langalanga, Hon Matthew Wale. Hon Wale failed to submit the requirements on time for inclusion in the PNG Budget for this year.
So in the unlikely event that NCRA were to be thrown out of office today, the new government must find some SBD300 million – some of which will go to help finance our students’ studies in PNG over the next five years as well as funds for our development.
AN ANALYSIS by Alfred Sasako
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