Dear Editor – Reading the Social Context and Social Historical Patterns there are social logic that will trigger a Potential Political Uproar. Meaning there is possibility of an political uproar before and after the Elections. Uproar culminating even after deciding for prime minister. If Expectations Fails.
Possible Solutions to avoid this!
1. Media Black Out during the cause of this processes. Especially Mobile and Internet.
2. Deployment of heavy police presence on suspected area’s
3. Dismiss Crowds in the city
4. Being neutral! Strong individuals, Chiefs, Community Leaders and church leaders to work with police
5. Central Bank to monitor substantial amount of money movement.
6. Prayer and Faith.
Why is this so?
The mass media is transporting blanketing information’s rapidly on many political propaganda, one of which is “Vote them out, they are Corrupt” and the intended candidates could thrive on it. This can trigger an unimaginable uproars if the result does not confirm with fixed expectations. This cannot be contained by a force because the Glue that act as adhesive (The Traditions, Church and Police) to the community structure is not very independent and could be very weak or can be biased (Giddens, 2009) to achieve the same end. Hence an uproar is very, very possible.
To substantiate the above hypothesis let us analyse some quantitative data’s (there could be limitations)
For example, Medias that transport information (s) like Radio, Mobile, Daily Papers and The internet (face book) have advanced. Another one is transportations, air and sea, there are rapid internal movement of information’s with influential people. All this will be accompanied with movement of money.
Radio Coverage is throughout the country. Telekom coverage have 46 Towers meaning subscribers could reach over 200,500 people. Internet emails, Facebook pages- FSII now have 10,727 members, FSI 10,803 members and this same members are distributed to all other cultural group Facebooks and goes.
Since the introduction of Facebook, nearly over two years, Virtual Social movement have grown, FSII being the leading one. People being blowing whistles to expresses their concerns and fears as it comes there way. People just post whatever in their mind freely-The number one topic on line being “Chronic Corruption and Poverty struggles” and goes. This is an open end statement…Take 20% of population that have access to mobile plus 1.2% that access FB now. We are talking about 200,000 people linked and covered with all kinds of uncensored information’s….This is a quarter of our population. Meaning this is very potential to transport information that could design an uproar by any one from anywhere around the globe.
Furthermore, Face book has magnitude of information only shared by few thousand on line. The rest are not online. Meaning only 1.2%, plus 10% if you include half of mobile users are also FB users. Thus you have only 11.2% could be less are on line. The rest of the population 88.8% are not accessing Face book.
So what’s the point?
1. Only 11.2% are on line, this people thinks everybody is on line as them…Fixing expectations
2. Majority 88.8% are off line…don’t know what is going on…they are still holding on to their own leaders
3. The fact is 11.2% can be very noisy and can easily control 88.5%…Proven! potential of uproar
4. Information’(s) “vote them out because they are corrupt” is not known by 88.5% in the rural areas. Oketa no savvy what iumi discusim lo face book. Unless information olsem is transported by Individuals moving around. they are still holding on to their leaders. Therefore, Change of Government as the 11.2% expects on line all the time is not very possible. Potential uproar here if the same people are voted in by the 88.5%
5. The fact is 88.5% do not know what is going on the media they can still vote old MPS back. Potential of uproar.
6. Dependency Theory have it that other international interests could want some Old MPS to remain. This could also incite Potential uproar. If not at the constituency level this will erupts during Prime ministers elections.
7. New candidate’s followers not winning the elections can cause disturbance. Slightly 5% possible.
8. Our Social structures and institutions that up holds social order is not very independent- The Tradition, Church, NGO’S and Police….Potential of being biased and instigating uproar and cannot contain possible violence- Unless heavily Armed.
9. De-individuation, meaning by-standers can follow a group norm that causes uproar is possible…Why? Staka Kross finish lo many outstanding issues. This is very likely.
The above are all quantitative analysis. Have data Limitations. We can avoid this by adhering to the suggested Solutions
Saeni Whitlam Utuala